- 7 minute read
Influenza on steroids
Ladies and Gentlemen, here are some facts:
1+1 Is Worth 200,000
People who protest the global anxiety attack and resent local guidelines, such as cancellation of flights or forced leave, do not take into account the rate of the virus' spread: it is exponential and highly viral. Most of the population will overcome the Coronavirus with relative ease - maximum heat, dry cough and some aches. However, 20% of patients will require medical attention as a result of breathing difficulties and other complications. If fast growth rates are coupled with the uncontrolled movement of people, chaos is a given: for every million people, there are around 200,000 potential referrals to hospitals. This is a real problem which could cause the national health system to collapse both severely and almost immediately.
The health system is one of the central and essential systems of every country, together with the policing, the fire brigade, the military, the communications, the infrastructure and the control and management system. When one system crashes, the other systems overload and even crash to the point of anarchy until the overload is over. While during all this time, there could be political unrest, a strict curfew and general political collapse.
Crime and Punishment
Conspiracy theorists are drooling across the world wide web. The fact that we humans "play" with the genetic codes of everything living in the world, including viruses, is nothing new. But one can't help but wonder about the coincidence in which two types of Coronavirus were discovered that week, and in the same area that happens to have a Coronavirus research lab.
The Butterfly Effect
We have never seen the butterfly effect so clearly and with such immediate effect. Every action, even the smallest and simplest thing that does or doesn’t, the individual will have a relatively quick impact on millions of people and even countries. An innocent act of disobedience to the rules of prevention, whether done inadvertently or egotistically, can produce an effect that will crush an entire state's economy. From zero to apocalypse in a matter of weeks.
Irrational and Not Coincidental
Dan Arieli published his philosophy in his books so accurate on humans and our irrationality in taking decisions. The Coronavirus epidemic shows us on a world scale how we, humans, behave in a purely irrational way in the storm of wind. Massive purchases of toilet paper, obsessively storing food when there is no shortage at all. The paradox is that these irrational actions cause unwanted side effects that lead to real problems such as temporary lack of supply, increased pressure and global chaos among various populations.
In my opinion, the global economy has entered into a clinical death. That is, all systems appear to be functional, but the heart has stopped beating and there is no blood flow to the brain. An analogy to our situation, blood flow is likened to the flow of people, customers, purchases or in one word - Demand. With the halt of the movement of people in the global and local sphere, demand was wiped out. Not slowed, erased. There is no "blood flow". At the same time, clinical death is a temporary condition that the body can return to if the flow of people returns within a reasonable time. Otherwise, we will experience irreversible damage.
Collapse in Stages
Even if we try to maintain optimism, there is no escaping the clear understanding that the medical solution to Coronavirus is months away, and at least a year away on a global scale. Therefore, we are expected to see with our own eyes the structure of world economies collapsing one after another. Naturally, the first to be influenced by the lack of movement of people is tourism and recreation. Airlines, resorts, hotels, restaurants, and leisure sites. As a result, service providers for those markets will begin to collapse. As the "World curfew" continues and over the weeks and months, additional verticals such as real estate, advertising, fashion, retail, beauty, automotive, rental and leasing, and more will begin to collapse. The first to crash will be the self-employed and small businesses.
It's a breath-holding game here. The more the company/business is based on a service/product that is basic, the greater the probability of its survival. And as the company/business has the greater breath-holding ability, whether with cash-based assets, borrowing ability, injecting capital from investors or providing a subsidy or government grant. That way, they can manage the crisis peacefully, but likely still endure some severe damage.
Get a Head Start
Due to the extreme situation and governmental responsibility, states will provide real relief to businesses and citizens. Starting with lowering interest rates, easing taxes, providing corporate grants, directing banks to waive mortgage payments for a specified period of time, and other economic and business actions that will provide a few more breaths for the economy to survive the game.
At the corporate and business levels, it will be the responsibility of every CEO and the board to stop, do risk management and recalculate. Any work plan prepared for 2020 is no longer relevant. The goal function of any company that wants to continue to exist next year will have to change from "maximum profit" to "economic survival".
One World, One Specie
With all the panic and chaos in each country over the coming year, we will witness the greatest global collaboration between countries that ever been. Right now, all countries have a common interest - to find a solution to the COVID-19. But unlike many other international collaborations in the past, in the case of the Coronavirus, all countries are dependent on each other. It will not be enough to take over and eradicate the virus in one country if in other countries the virus is still raging. As a result, the virus takeover is bound to have to be done at the global level.
Regeneration and Innovation
In every country, there are health systems, some admirable and some less to say the least. The current situation will force the various governments to call all attention and a large part of the resources to renew and refresh national and municipal health systems. From basic and advanced medical equipment, bridging computing and control systems, creating and refreshing procedures and protocols. Where there is a crisis, there is an opportunity, and the big beneficiaries will be countries, companies and startups that will be flexible enough to adopt innovative state-of-the-art technologies at various levels.
The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly
The good news is that in the end, Coronavirus will eventually occur like any seasonal winter flu. The real risk is to elderly or ill populations, to most of the rest of the world this will around one to two weeks illness with a cough, aches and a runny nose.
But the coming transition period, which I believe will last at least until the end of 2020, is the real test at the global level. In the good case, Hollywood style movies, by the end of the summer a drug and vaccine will be launched, or alternatively, during the summer the virus will reveal lack of durability to the heat which will give us extra breath length. And by the beginning of 2021, the world will see a trend toward a return to sanity.
In a worse scenario, continuing to tighten the rope on the people's neck, with world curfew and other limitations, will extend the clinical death of the global and local economies. Businesses will fall one by one, massive layoffs and people will go bankrupt at the household level as economies move into austerity, while governments will distribute coupons for food and basic groceries. We were already been in this movie.
In the ugly case, and the one that should be avoided at all costs is a total collapse of the national control systems. The spread of the virus in an uncontrolled manner as a result of irresponsibility people's movement will soon lead to a large wave of patients. Even if 80% of them came out safely after a week in bed, there are still hundreds of thousands of patients in each state who will crowd hospitals and totally disrupt the health systems. And once that happens, there's almost no turning back. The death toll will rise to tens of thousands, either directly from the virus or indirectly as a result of a lack of basic health care. And one major system collapse will lead to a domino of state-level transverse systems collapse.
The bottom line - this is a game of time.
Stay isolated, keep your hygiene in check, and prepare to survive financially for the year ahead.